OPEC will no longer be..
Frozen production agreements fizzled out after, in OPEC laissez faire production state, April Brent prices over the same period rose 21.5%. April 28, closed at 48 U. S. dollars / barrel, for seven months to the highest. 40 years ago, OPEC in less than 20 years time replaced the "Seven Sisters", control of the source of the world's oil supply, set off the ebb and flow of the 1970s oil market in the 20th century. The two oil crisis, it can be described as a sneeze in the Persian Gulf, the whole west have a cold.
However, in the face of falling oil prices since 2014, is still the world's most important oil exporting organization OPEC but the heart is not enough. Is OPEC's strength is not enough, or the oil price itself becomes heavy? "After the OPEC era", the oil price of the authority to whom?
The influence of declining margin when OPEC
Discuss the factors that affect the price of oil, and start from the attributes of the petroleum. In early twentieth Century, as a natural resource, the price of oil was simply to be calibrated by the Mexico Bay benchmark price plus freight. And with the oil commodity, political, financial and other attributes appear, the market is far from the price of the price can be determined by the.
As a kind of scarce resources, the basic attribute of oil is the commodity attribute. Oil production and demand expansion, resource and market imbalances in the distribution of oil trade scale growth. Cost is no longer the only factor in pricing, the impact of supply and demand change is more and more prominent. OPEC in 1950s to break the integration of Western companies, so that the supply and demand to form two camps.
In 1970s, OPEC, by virtue of the world's 70% reserves and more than half of the export volume, monopolized the oil supply. However, after the oil supply camp more and more to the evolution of diverse competition. In the eighties of the 20th century, with the emergence of Russia, the North Sea, Gulf of Mexico and other non OPEC oil producing power, OPEC's monopoly is broken. In recent years, with the rise of the Arctic, the deep sea, unconventional, alternative energy, OPEC's market share was barely maintained at 40%. Since 2013, the United States led by non OPEC has contributed half of the world's crude oil production growth. Whether it is the deepening of internal differences in OPEC, or non OPEC external rise, the supply of diversified competition will be an irreversible trend.
The power of the oil demand camp has also changed, and there is a reverse impact on oil prices. Demand factors are mainly related to the level of economic development in the world, the development of alternative energy and energy saving technology. 1970s major consuming countries to increase domestic oil tax rates, restraint consumption, effectively reduce the dependence on the Middle East oil. In 1974, the International Energy Agency (IEA) was established, the main consuming countries to strengthen oil reserves, energy conservation and other cooperation to reduce oil demand, thereby affecting oil prices, to enhance the power of discourse. Oil prices rose from $14 a barrel to $3 during the 40 months of the Gulf War in 1990. IEA will be 2 million 500 thousand barrels of crude oil per day on the market, so that prices plummeted more than 10 dollars a day, effectively stabilize the market sentiment.
Today, non OECD (OECD) countries have more than OECD consumption of the country, will be the main market for future oil consumption. Asia Pacific, Africa, Latin America, the development of oil demand will remain strong growth. At the same time, OPEC production has reached the upper limit, the future of oil mainly rely on non OPEC to achieve. Can be seen, the traditional supply and demand structure is changing, OPEC is not the only one. Under the pattern of multiple supply and demand game, the influence decline is inevitable.
Long term strategy is difficult to achieve
OPEC long term strategy to develop once every five years, designed to outline the goals of each member state and the future will face the challenge. The profound differences between Saudi Iran and in the long-term strategy of the crude oil market and the economy will have an important impact on the. According to Bloomberg news, OPEC member countries in the reduction of output, set production quotas, to find the different ways OPEC member countries profit maximization, these words are different.
According to informed sources, a significant change in Saudi Arabia's idea is: they now believe that the oil price target has no sense, because the international market weakness reflects structural change, rather than a temporary trend. Iran director Kazempour Ardebili Hossein claimed that the "effective production management" as one of the highest long-term goals, which is the significance of the establishment of OPEC. But the Saudi Council Mohammed al-Madi is that over the past few years the world has undergone much change, do so only in vain.
Bloomberg pointed out that, if in accordance with the idea of Saudi Arabia, as one of the core strategy of OPEC, through the control of the supply management of international oil prices will be declared the end.
In November last year, OPEC outlined the ten challenges that will be faced in its long term strategy. Iran in the draft will be the first challenge expressed as the oil price will be maintained at an optimal level, as well as in the dynamic market environment to maintain effective production management."
In this regard, CNBC wrote that the fundamental question is whether OPEC assume the traditional role, will stabilize the supply and support prices in the first place, or continue to implement the idea of refusing to cut production to snatch market share.
Iran and Algeria and other countries are hoping to play the traditional role of "stabilizing oil prices and managing production", while Saudi Arabia and its allies want to stop trying to manage the market.
In the earlier draft of the LTS, Iran and Algeria put forward a remark about supporting the price of oil, such as setting a price target or lower limit, and restoring the OPEC quota system. But Saudi Arabia's opposition to the recovery quota system, which was abolished in 2011.
Thewall Street Journal noted that Saudi Arabia is not willing to and his teammates to reach a consistent long-term strategy, may because of the organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) boss in his abacus. Not long ago, Saudi Deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman announced plans for the Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco listed, and is intended to be the giant enterprises gradually transformed into an "energy and industrial giants". Its intent is clear: to reduce dependence on oil.
The Wall Street Journal, we originally thought that the oil market is dominated by the organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) the traditional Middle East oil producing countries and U.S. shale oil between competition, but now find, don't say cut, major oil producers of the Middle East even in stable yield about from ear to ear. The main oil producing countries are unable to take the measures to reduce the supply of this far-reaching impact on the oil market has a long-term significance.
According to Reuters
The plural evolution of the system of the right of speech in oil market
With the increasing complexity of the international geopolitical situation, the competition for the control right of oil resources and transportation is becoming more and more fierce, and the world oil center also becomes the focus of all kinds of political power. Oil is related to a country's economic security, political stability and international status, which makes the oil in the commodity attribute also has the political attribute.
In the game between the state, oil is often regarded as economic tools and strategic weapons to deter, sanctions against his country, to achieve political and economic interests. Political factors have a significant impact on oil prices because of the role of certain social and political events in the relationship between supply and demand, and the psychological expectations of market panic. Especially the political events related to the Middle East, often cause the concern of the international market for oil supply.
At the end of the 20th century, with the changes in oil prices are becoming more and more frequent and intense, the financial instruments emerge, market participants of using financial tools to circumvent the oil price risk needs more and more intense, a large number of international financial capital through the oil derivative financial products to participate in the oil market, making the financial property of the oil has become increasingly prominent.
Futures market is expected to be between the supply and demand of the transaction, the futures gathered on the reality of a variety of oil supply and demand information to determine the price, the price is more transparent, more competitive. From 1984 to 2004 the New York Stock Exchange oil futures increased by 30 times, with its price discovery function, gradually replaced the organization or the state administrative price LED market pricing situation.
However, the futures market is subject to the impact of national policies, major events, geopolitical, speculators and other information is expected, which makes the short-term volatility of oil prices more frequently. Sometimes in speculators speculation, oil prices will even be separated from the fundamentals of supply and demand. Studies have shown that the rapid rise in 2004 to 2008 international oil prices, there are 1 / 3 above can by speculation in the futures market to explain; and many other factors, such as changes in oil quality, residual capacity reduction, inventory changes, only with the less than two-thirds of the change.
In addition, the dollar's monopoly position in the international oil trade denominated currency has also increased the financial attributes of oil. A change in the value of the dollar, a direct impact on the oil producing countries and consuming countries of the purchasing power, but also cause speculative funds between the money market and oil and other commodities market large-scale flow and impact the petroleum futures price changes. The dollar's performance has become a benchmark for oil prices.
It can be said that the financial property of the oil increased in a certain extent, weakened the traditional spot market supply and demand sides in oil prices right to speak, and let more influencing factors through financial markets and oil prices associated, "alone big" the right to speak is further decomposed.
In addition to supply and demand, political, financial three factors, the impact of oil prices also include crude oil inventory, speculation expectations, technical progress, climate conditions, economic structure, national policies, alternative energy development, etc.. Oil prices showed long-term trends and short-term fluctuations superimposed, the traditional supply and demand and emerging factors are intertwined, the country, the group will and free market subject game, production and supply of trade for each chain link of mutual checks and balances of and behind the price movements are complicated reasons and the number of days [of all market participants.
Therefore, today's oil prices have been from the monopoly of the unilateral pricing into many factors determine the price of the financial market, the power of oil prices continue to be decomposed dilution, oil prices are more balanced.
Willingness to increase production is still strong
Although factors such as higher inventory as a constant reminder, oil market is still oversupply, but oil prices since hitting a 12 year low in January, has rebounded more than 75% and signs that the fall in oil prices to curb high shale business in the United States into the oil supply. However, the oversupply situation has not improved, the OPEC oil producers in the market share and increase thermal stimulation of the drama is still performed in full swing.
Due to Iran and Iraq are increasing production, and far more than the Kuwait oil workers strike and other oil producers production disruptions caused by the impact, April OPEC's total production increase and the highest level in history - April OPEC daily supply increased to 3264 million barrels, higher than March 324.7 million barrels a day, according to a Reuters earlier this month released a survey.
At the same time, April OPEC's total production level almost unchanged and 1 month 32.65 million barrels, when Indonesia rejoined OPEC pushed up the overall yield and output of 12 members also reached Reuters in 1997 started since the survey records the highest.
OPEC one of the oil producing countries, Iran, April, the largest increase in output. The hope in the west to lift sanctions, can recapture lost market share, and therefore refused to return to the level before the sanctions before limited production in the production. Iran in April the daily output of 3 million 400 thousand barrels, close to 3 million 500 thousand barrels at the end of 2011, when Western sanctions have not been strengthened. However, sources said, some of the crude oil may come from the inventory, which temporarily pushed up the April production.
Iraqi production has increased. South of the country in April exports may set a record high, the country's output growth in 2015 was the fastest OPEC member states. In addition, the Iraqi South Oil Co data show that in April the country's crude oil exports of barrels per day, higher than the 3 million 290 thousand barrels in March, but also close to a record high in November last year, a record high.
In addition, OPEC member of the United Arab Emirates also due to Moore class oil field maintenance
End, re production, production and export volume has also increased.
Although in the OPEC and non OPEC countries after consultation abortion,
