World energy situation..
2019-01-11 14:30Source:
In recent years, the global energy situation has undergone great changes in oil prices from over $ 100 / bbl to $ 30 / barrel, then bounced back to $ 50 / bbl. Why oil prices will collapse? How the future development of the oil and gas industry? In-depth analysis is not difficult to find, mainly in the following three reasons together caused today's situation. First, due to the low permeability, technical constraints (including new reservoirs in the border / deep water, shale gas condensate) without exploration of shale oil can now be large-scale exploration. During this period, the US shale oil produced from January 2007 of 120 million barrels / day, up to April 2015 of 560 million barrels / day, later in March 2016 fell to 506 million barrels / day.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
What caused the prosperity of shale oil?
Sustained high oil prices make unconventional shale oil industry gradually develop, mature, even when oil prices fall contrarian, thanks largely to the progress of technology, primarily horizontal drilling, staged fracturing, drilling and completion efficiency improve well placement, etc. makes more reasonable, but also makes it easy to drill up to high-yield area of the reservoir basin, the end result is to improve the well production. During this period, some of the basin estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) in 2015-- increased to 50 to 60% by 2016. Eventually all seven basins single oil rig productivity are showing a significant increase.
For example, Eagle Ford basin single oil rig productivity in January 2007 was 42 bbl / day in March 2016 was 829 barrels / day, an increase of about 20 times. In this curve, in October 2014 the total rig count reached a peak of 1257 units, then gradually reduced to March 2016 of 307 units. Oil prices continued to decline almost equal to the breakeven point, those breakeven point below $ 30 / barrel basin, despite the weak oil price environment, the company continues to produce some.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Automotive industry structural conversion
Secondly, 72% of crude oil is mainly consumed in transport (land, air, sea, etc.), more than 80% of land related. Therefore, any reform of the automotive industry will directly reduce the need for future international crude oil, thus affecting the development of the oil companies. Over the past 10 years, transport huge structural changes. In the past century, internal combustion engine vehicles (IC) gradually electric vehicle (EV), fuel cell vehicles (FCV) and natural gas vehicles (NGV) substituted. In addition, energy efficiency, semi-automatic driving a car, and this will reduce demand for crude oil.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Andreas under different scenarios for electric vehicles to replace the number of crude oil made quantitative assessment found that by 2040, the average market will have 424 million electric cars, will replace the 13 million barrels / day of crude oil consumption; most will replace 38.9 million crude oil barrels / day consumption.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Electricity demand and renewable energy revolution
Finally, the world economy growing demand for electricity will increase because electricity consumption and economic growth in absolute positive correlation, however, very important way to get electricity. From a historical point of view, coal power generation in some countries more than 60%. In 2012, electricity generation accounted for more than the coal still accounts for 40.2%, natural gas accounted for 22.4%, hydropower accounted for 16.5%, 10.8% nuclear, solar and wind power accounted for 2.7%, other 7%. However, according to "Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)" the study said, we have a huge power generation is about to change, not more than 10 years, our era of increasing demand for fossil fuels will end.
If the contribution of fossil fuels to generate electricity is gradually reduced, then we can find what kind of alternatives to meet the gradually increasing power demand? Of course, we also need to find renewable energy sources to avoid global warming, and the protection of human life on Earth.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Technology - to reduce the growth of renewable energy and costs
In 1995, only a few countries were added to the World Wind Energy Group, 2015, the Group increased to 105 countries. As shown below, the end of 2015, the total wind power capacity increased to 432.42 GW, 1995 this figure was only 4.8 GW. This significant increase in renewable energy benefit from technological advances and cost.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Reduce the cost of wind and solar power so quickly that coal and natural gas prices currently at the lowest price point can not stop the growth trends of wind and solar energy, for example, the US price of wind power currently in the record low of only 2.5 cents /kilowatt. Compared to 2014, in 2015 the total global wind power capacity increased by 63 GW, the equivalent of 60 nuclear reactors. This makes wind power capacity in January 2016 exceeded the total nuclear power capacity of 328.55 GW. According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is expected "in China under the guidance of the next five years the number of wind power generation device will be doubled."
By 2015, solar power capacity increased to 230 GW, the next four years, BSW-Solar is expected to total solar photovoltaic power generation capacity will be at least doubled to at least 400 GW. According to BNEF it predicts that by 2030, wind power and solar power will become the majority of countries worldwide the cheapest way to produce electricity.
Regardless of the coming decades electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, autopilot to what extent the promotion of car is bound to dramatically reduce the need for international land transport crude oil. Moreover, with the proportion of renewable energy in the total energy consumption continues to increase, coal and natural gas for electricity generation is a huge blow. For example, if, in 2040, the proportion of fossil energy consumption to 86% from the current 45%, from 57% of oil and gas consumption is approaching 30%, oil and gas companies, inevitably there will be enormous problems of survival.
From now to 2040, it is expected to invest in renewable energy will reach $ 7.8 trillion, including $ 3.4 trillion for solar energy, wind energy $ 3.1 trillion, $ 911 billion hydropower, fossil energy-related investment is only $ 2.1 trillion, this fully shows the status of the protagonist oil and gas companies are gradually fading. In the end position drop much? Time will give us the answer.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Future oil and gas industry in 2040
According to the senior management of the oil and gas industry, a description he had just developed a new strategic plan for the company, this strategy is based on EIA-IEO's "2016 International Energy Outlook." He said the strategy, global oil demand in 2012 from 9000 million barrels / day to 1.209 million barrels / day, demand for natural gas from 2012's 328 billion cubic feet / day (about 9.2876 billion square / day) increase 2040 of 557 billion cubic feet / day (about 15.772 billion square / day). If he slept deeply, did not wake up until 2040, the world will become what?
Look at the present and the future of electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas-powered cars and renewable energy patterns, changes in the world by 2040 will occur this is not surprising? A large number of internal combustion engine powered car has been electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas-powered vehicles and self-driving cars replaced, and every household can generate electricity, energy self-sufficient. The end result is a large number of urban households with a small amount of solar panels to generate electricity and meet their heating, cooling, lighting, cooking and other needs for electric vehicle charging. In rural, remote and mountainous areas, maritime and quarantine, wind farm power generation to meet the electricity needs of local communities will become commonplace. Very simple and can meet all the demand for electricity generated by wind farms and rooftop solar panels or a community.
Under these circumstances, especially when a substantial decline in oil and gas position, if from the current 57% to 30%, then 40 years later, the proportion of energy will be like? Based on the current and future global energy landscape is expected to change the situation, oil and gas companies need to properly assess the rapid development of electric vehicles and renewable energy, and accordingly change their strategies to avoid being completely abandoned by the times.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
What caused the prosperity of shale oil?
Sustained high oil prices make unconventional shale oil industry gradually develop, mature, even when oil prices fall contrarian, thanks largely to the progress of technology, primarily horizontal drilling, staged fracturing, drilling and completion efficiency improve well placement, etc. makes more reasonable, but also makes it easy to drill up to high-yield area of the reservoir basin, the end result is to improve the well production. During this period, some of the basin estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) in 2015-- increased to 50 to 60% by 2016. Eventually all seven basins single oil rig productivity are showing a significant increase.
For example, Eagle Ford basin single oil rig productivity in January 2007 was 42 bbl / day in March 2016 was 829 barrels / day, an increase of about 20 times. In this curve, in October 2014 the total rig count reached a peak of 1257 units, then gradually reduced to March 2016 of 307 units. Oil prices continued to decline almost equal to the breakeven point, those breakeven point below $ 30 / barrel basin, despite the weak oil price environment, the company continues to produce some.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Automotive industry structural conversion
Secondly, 72% of crude oil is mainly consumed in transport (land, air, sea, etc.), more than 80% of land related. Therefore, any reform of the automotive industry will directly reduce the need for future international crude oil, thus affecting the development of the oil companies. Over the past 10 years, transport huge structural changes. In the past century, internal combustion engine vehicles (IC) gradually electric vehicle (EV), fuel cell vehicles (FCV) and natural gas vehicles (NGV) substituted. In addition, energy efficiency, semi-automatic driving a car, and this will reduce demand for crude oil.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Andreas under different scenarios for electric vehicles to replace the number of crude oil made quantitative assessment found that by 2040, the average market will have 424 million electric cars, will replace the 13 million barrels / day of crude oil consumption; most will replace 38.9 million crude oil barrels / day consumption.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Electricity demand and renewable energy revolution
Finally, the world economy growing demand for electricity will increase because electricity consumption and economic growth in absolute positive correlation, however, very important way to get electricity. From a historical point of view, coal power generation in some countries more than 60%. In 2012, electricity generation accounted for more than the coal still accounts for 40.2%, natural gas accounted for 22.4%, hydropower accounted for 16.5%, 10.8% nuclear, solar and wind power accounted for 2.7%, other 7%. However, according to "Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)" the study said, we have a huge power generation is about to change, not more than 10 years, our era of increasing demand for fossil fuels will end.
If the contribution of fossil fuels to generate electricity is gradually reduced, then we can find what kind of alternatives to meet the gradually increasing power demand? Of course, we also need to find renewable energy sources to avoid global warming, and the protection of human life on Earth.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Technology - to reduce the growth of renewable energy and costs
In 1995, only a few countries were added to the World Wind Energy Group, 2015, the Group increased to 105 countries. As shown below, the end of 2015, the total wind power capacity increased to 432.42 GW, 1995 this figure was only 4.8 GW. This significant increase in renewable energy benefit from technological advances and cost.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Reduce the cost of wind and solar power so quickly that coal and natural gas prices currently at the lowest price point can not stop the growth trends of wind and solar energy, for example, the US price of wind power currently in the record low of only 2.5 cents /kilowatt. Compared to 2014, in 2015 the total global wind power capacity increased by 63 GW, the equivalent of 60 nuclear reactors. This makes wind power capacity in January 2016 exceeded the total nuclear power capacity of 328.55 GW. According to the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) is expected "in China under the guidance of the next five years the number of wind power generation device will be doubled."
By 2015, solar power capacity increased to 230 GW, the next four years, BSW-Solar is expected to total solar photovoltaic power generation capacity will be at least doubled to at least 400 GW. According to BNEF it predicts that by 2030, wind power and solar power will become the majority of countries worldwide the cheapest way to produce electricity.
Regardless of the coming decades electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, autopilot to what extent the promotion of car is bound to dramatically reduce the need for international land transport crude oil. Moreover, with the proportion of renewable energy in the total energy consumption continues to increase, coal and natural gas for electricity generation is a huge blow. For example, if, in 2040, the proportion of fossil energy consumption to 86% from the current 45%, from 57% of oil and gas consumption is approaching 30%, oil and gas companies, inevitably there will be enormous problems of survival.
From now to 2040, it is expected to invest in renewable energy will reach $ 7.8 trillion, including $ 3.4 trillion for solar energy, wind energy $ 3.1 trillion, $ 911 billion hydropower, fossil energy-related investment is only $ 2.1 trillion, this fully shows the status of the protagonist oil and gas companies are gradually fading. In the end position drop much? Time will give us the answer.
Original oil ring, oil ring public number: oilsns
Future oil and gas industry in 2040
According to the senior management of the oil and gas industry, a description he had just developed a new strategic plan for the company, this strategy is based on EIA-IEO's "2016 International Energy Outlook." He said the strategy, global oil demand in 2012 from 9000 million barrels / day to 1.209 million barrels / day, demand for natural gas from 2012's 328 billion cubic feet / day (about 9.2876 billion square / day) increase 2040 of 557 billion cubic feet / day (about 15.772 billion square / day). If he slept deeply, did not wake up until 2040, the world will become what?
Look at the present and the future of electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas-powered cars and renewable energy patterns, changes in the world by 2040 will occur this is not surprising? A large number of internal combustion engine powered car has been electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, natural gas-powered vehicles and self-driving cars replaced, and every household can generate electricity, energy self-sufficient. The end result is a large number of urban households with a small amount of solar panels to generate electricity and meet their heating, cooling, lighting, cooking and other needs for electric vehicle charging. In rural, remote and mountainous areas, maritime and quarantine, wind farm power generation to meet the electricity needs of local communities will become commonplace. Very simple and can meet all the demand for electricity generated by wind farms and rooftop solar panels or a community.
Under these circumstances, especially when a substantial decline in oil and gas position, if from the current 57% to 30%, then 40 years later, the proportion of energy will be like? Based on the current and future global energy landscape is expected to change the situation, oil and gas companies need to properly assess the rapid development of electric vehicles and renewable energy, and accordingly change their strategies to avoid being completely abandoned by the times.
